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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd