Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
