A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
